Preston 1-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Preston vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Preston host Swansea at Deepdale in Championship, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 1 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Deepdale this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Swansea's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Preston's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Preston have won 1, Swansea 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Swansea winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Preston in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Swansea in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 46% versus Swansea 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 40% | Swansea 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.05 xG and Swansea 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.687 / defence 0.905 | Swansea attack 1.047 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.118. Preston's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Preston games / 63 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 35% | Draw 30% | Swansea 35%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Swansea 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Preston 30% | Swansea 80%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 35% | Draw 30% | Swansea 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Preston 1.05 / Swansea 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.687 / def 0.905 | Swansea attack 1.047 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Swansea xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Swansea kick off?
Preston vs Swansea kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 November 2022 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Swansea?
Preston 1 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Preston vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Swansea part of?
Preston vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 35% chance of winning, Swansea a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Preston and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Swansea?
Record (2 meetings): Preston 1W | Draws 0 | Swansea 1W.
What form are Preston and Swansea in?
Preston (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Swansea (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Preston's attack rating (0.69) and Swansea's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.35
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Preston xG
Total xG
2.11
1.06
Swansea xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Preston and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Preston and 1.06 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Preston come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 23D 18L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.41 PPG from 63 outings (24W 17D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.41 PPG, Swansea on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Preston's home form reads 11W 14D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.23 points per game from 31 outings (10W 8D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.29 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Preston have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Swansea in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 22W 23D 18L in their last 63 games (1.41 PPG), while Swansea have gone 24W 17D 22L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Swansea away?
Preston's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.52 PPG; Swansea away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Preston or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Swansea in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preston and Swansea runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Swansea won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Preston's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Preston
2
Draws
4
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, Preston have won 4, Swansea have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Swansea 1-1 Preston.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 58%, Swansea 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Preston) and 55% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Preston keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Preston have failed to score in 29% of games; Swansea in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Preston's recent matches and 52% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Preston vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Preston's recent games and 55% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Swansea tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Swansea in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Preston defy the odds to beat Swansea 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Swansea 1-0 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.05 xG and Swansea 1.06 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Swansea landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.69 / defence 0.91 against Swansea attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 35% | Draw 30% | Swansea 35%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 40%, Swansea 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Swansea's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.41 PPG, Swansea 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.