Wigan 1-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Birmingham at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Birmingham travel to DW Stadium to take on Wigan. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Wigan have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wigan's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at DW Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Birmingham stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Championship matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Birmingham's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Wigan) versus 0.60 (Birmingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Wigan, 0 for Birmingham and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Wigan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Wigan in-play and half-time data (79 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Birmingham in-play and half-time data (79 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 62% versus Birmingham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 51% | Birmingham 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.12 xG and Birmingham 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.639 / defence 1.403 | Birmingham attack 1.138 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.068. Wigan's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Birmingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Wigan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Wigan games / 80 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 25% | Draw 24% | Birmingham 51%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Birmingham 1.96. Birmingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Birmingham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 50% | Birmingham 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 25% | Draw 24% | Birmingham 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Wigan 1.12 / Birmingham 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.639 / def 1.403 | Birmingham attack 1.138 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Birmingham xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Birmingham kick off?
Wigan vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Birmingham?
Wigan 1 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Wigan vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Birmingham part of?
Wigan vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 25% chance of winning, Birmingham a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wigan and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Birmingham?
Record (1 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 0 | Birmingham 0W.
What form are Wigan and Birmingham in?
Wigan (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Birmingham (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wigan's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
25%
4.04
24%
4.10
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.82
1.71
Birmingham xG
4.04
25%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
4%
22.24
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Wigan and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Wigan and 1.71 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 79 outings, Wigan have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 34W 21D 24L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Birmingham's form line: 20W 22D 37L from 79 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Birmingham.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wigan have posted 1.39 PPG from 38 outings (15W 8D 15L).
On the road, Birmingham have gone 8W 11D 19L from 38 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wigan are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.10 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 34W 21D 24L in their last 79 games (1.56 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 20W 22D 37L in their last 79 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Birmingham away?
Wigan's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.39 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wigan and Birmingham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Birmingham have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2025, when Birmingham won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wigan's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wigan
1
Draws
2
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Birmingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Wigan have won 1, Birmingham have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2025, when Wigan 0-3 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Birmingham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 58%, Birmingham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Wigan) and 50% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Birmingham in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Wigan's recent matches and 50% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Wigan's recent games and 50% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Birmingham tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan and Birmingham finished level at 1-1 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.12 xG and Birmingham 1.71 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.64 / defence 1.40 against Birmingham attack 1.14 / defence 1.38, drawn from 33/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 25% | Draw 24% | Birmingham 51%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 51%, Birmingham 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Birmingham's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.