Rotherham 3-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rotherham at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rotherham vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees QPR travel to AESSEAL New York Stadium to take on Rotherham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Rotherham have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rotherham at AESSEAL New York Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
QPR — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, QPR have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Rotherham are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rotherham have won 0, QPR 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rotherham trading profile (80 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
QPR trading profile (80 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 39% versus QPR 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 39% | QPR 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 1.48 xG and QPR 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 1.031 / defence 1.201 | QPR attack 0.882 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.068. Data: 34 Rotherham games / 80 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rotherham 45% | Draw 26% | QPR 29%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | QPR 3.45. Rotherham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rotherham are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rotherham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rotherham 70% | QPR 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 45% | Draw 26% | QPR 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Rotherham 1.48 / QPR 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 1.031 / def 1.201 | QPR attack 0.882 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
1.13
QPR xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs QPR kick off?
Rotherham vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs QPR?
Rotherham 3 - 1 QPR.
Where is Rotherham vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs QPR part of?
Rotherham vs QPR is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 45% chance of winning, QPR a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rotherham and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and QPR?
Record (1 meetings): Rotherham 0W | Draws 1 | QPR 0W.
What form are Rotherham and QPR in?
Rotherham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. QPR (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rotherham's attack at 1.03x the league average against QPR's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.79
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.61
1.13
QPR xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Rotherham and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Rotherham and 1.13 for QPR, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rotherham come into this having played 80 games, going 35W 22D 23L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.31 PPG from 80 outings (29W 18D 33L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rotherham on 1.59 PPG, QPR on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rotherham's home form reads 21W 8D 10L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.21 points per game from 39 outings (13W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rotherham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rotherham are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.19 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and QPR in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 35W 22D 23L in their last 80 games (1.59 PPG), while QPR have gone 29W 18D 33L in their last 80 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or QPR away?
Rotherham's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.82 PPG; QPR away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Rotherham or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, QPR in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rotherham's record when hosting QPR specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rotherham
2
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and QPR?
From 4 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 1, QPR have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when QPR 2-1 Rotherham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 54%, QPR 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Rotherham) and 54% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Rotherham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; QPR in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Rotherham's games and 56% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rotherham vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Rotherham's recent games and 54% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and QPR tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, QPR in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rotherham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rotherham beat QPR 3-1 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.48 xG and QPR 1.13 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rotherham beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 1.03 / defence 1.20 against QPR attack 0.88 / defence 1.13, drawn from 34/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 45% | Draw 26% | QPR 29%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 39%, QPR 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rotherham 1.59 PPG, QPR 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rotherham win broke the near-deadlock. Rotherham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.