West Brom 0-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Brom and Sunderland meet at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 43. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
West Brom's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at The Hawthorns this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sunderland's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in West Brom's favour (2.00 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: West Brom 1W, Sunderland 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 50% versus Sunderland 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 41% | Sunderland 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.28 xG and Sunderland 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.101 / defence 0.763 | Sunderland attack 0.850 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.164. West Brom's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 88 West Brom games / 88 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 49% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 22%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Sunderland 4.55. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 30% | Sunderland 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 49% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG West Brom 1.28 / Sunderland 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.101 / def 0.763 | Sunderland attack 0.850 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: West Brom (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Sunderland xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Sunderland kick off?
West Brom vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Sunderland?
West Brom 0 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is West Brom vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Sunderland part of?
West Brom vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 49% chance of winning, Sunderland a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both West Brom and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Sunderland?
Record (3 meetings): West Brom 1W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 2W.
What form are West Brom and Sunderland in?
West Brom (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Sunderland (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates West Brom's attack at 1.10x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.85x) against West Brom's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 88/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.43
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.03
0.75
Sunderland xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are West Brom and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for West Brom and 0.75 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
West Brom come into this having played 88 games, going 38W 24D 26L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.38 PPG from 88 outings (33W 22D 33L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for West Brom against 1.38 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
West Brom's home form reads 25W 11D 8L across 44 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.30 points per game from 44 outings (15W 12D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Brom are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.33 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Sunderland in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 38W 24D 26L in their last 88 games (1.57 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 33W 22D 33L in their last 88 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Sunderland away?
West Brom's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.95 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.30 PPG.
Have West Brom or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sunderland in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
West Brom
1
Draws
4
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, West Brom have won 1, Sunderland have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when West Brom 0-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 41%, Sunderland 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (West Brom) and 43% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Sunderland in 32%; Sunderland in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of West Brom's recent matches and 50% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of West Brom's recent games and 43% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Sunderland tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat West Brom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat West Brom 0-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.28 xG and Sunderland 0.75 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. West Brom fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.10 / defence 0.76 against Sunderland attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 49% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 22%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, Sunderland 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.57 PPG, Sunderland 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.02 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.