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Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat West Brom 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat West Brom 0-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.62 xG and Derby 1.15 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. West Brom fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.03 / defence 0.90 against Derby attack 1.06 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 48% | Draw 25% | Derby 27%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 36%, Derby 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Derby's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights