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Derby cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over West Brom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat West Brom 1-3 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.70 xG and Derby 0.79 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Derby outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Derby attack 0.89 / defence 1.26, drawn from 89/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 59% | Draw 24% | Derby 17%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Derby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 40%, Derby 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Derby's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.49 PPG, Derby 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights