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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Watford and Portsmouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vicarage Road, Regular Season - 28, as Watford and Portsmouth drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Watford 1.89 xG and Portsmouth 0.77 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Watford fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Watford attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Portsmouth attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Watford 63% | Draw 23% | Portsmouth 14%, with Watford to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Watford 55%, Portsmouth 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Watford's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Portsmouth's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Watford 1.34 PPG, Portsmouth 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Portsmouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights