Watford 0-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Watford vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hull City make the trip to Vicarage Road to face Watford in Championship, Regular Season - 44. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Watford (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Watford have posted 0W 4D 6L at Vicarage Road — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hull City have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, Hull City have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hull City are 0.60 PPG clear of Watford in recent Championship fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Watford register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Hull City in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Watford, 1 for Hull City and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Watford winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Watford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (88 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (88 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Watford 50% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Watford 46% | Hull City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Watford 1.28 xG and Hull City 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Watford attack 0.903 / defence 1.174 | Hull City attack 1.199 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.141. Data: 89 Watford games / 88 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Watford 31% | Draw 24% | Hull City 45%. Fair-value odds: Watford 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Hull City 2.22. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Watford 80% | Hull City 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Watford vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Vicarage Road • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Watford 31% | Draw 24% | Hull City 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Watford 1.28 / Hull City 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Watford attack 0.903 / def 1.174 | Hull City attack 1.199 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Hull City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Watford xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Hull City xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Watford vs Hull City kick off?
Watford vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Vicarage Road.
What was the final score in Watford vs Hull City?
Watford 0 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Watford vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Vicarage Road.
What competition is Watford vs Hull City part of?
Watford vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Watford vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Watford a 31% chance of winning, Hull City a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Watford vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Watford and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Watford vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Watford and Hull City?
Record (3 meetings): Watford 1W | Draws 1 | Hull City 1W.
What form are Watford and Hull City in?
Watford (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Hull City (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Watford's attack rating (0.90) and Hull City's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.20x) against Watford's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 89/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
31%
3.27
24%
4.09
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Watford xG
Total xG
2.89
1.61
Hull City xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
6%
16.33
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Watford vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Watford and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Watford and 1.61 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Watford vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Watford come into this having played 88 games, going 27W 31D 30L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.40 PPG from 88 outings (32W 27D 29L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Watford against 1.40 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Watford's home form reads 15W 14D 14L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.35 points per game from 43 outings (15W 13D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Watford are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.28 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 88 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Watford
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Watford and Hull City in coming into this match?
Watford have gone 27W 31D 30L in their last 88 games (1.27 PPG), while Hull City have gone 32W 27D 29L in their last 88 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Watford at home or Hull City away?
Watford's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Watford at home: 1.37 PPG; Hull City away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Watford or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Watford have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hull City in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Watford have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Watford
4
Draws
1
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Watford and Hull City?
From 8 meetings on record, Watford have won 3, Hull City have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Watford and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Hull City 0-0 Watford.
Who has won more matches between Watford and Hull City?
Watford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Watford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Watford 56%, Hull City 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Watford) and 58% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Watford keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hull City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Watford home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Watford play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Watford's games and 60% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Watford vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Watford's recent games and 58% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Watford and Hull City tend to score early?
Watford have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hull City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Watford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vicarage Road, Regular Season - 44, as Watford and Hull City drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Watford 1.28 xG and Hull City 1.61 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Watford fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hull City landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Watford attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against Hull City attack 1.20 / defence 1.06, drawn from 89/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Watford 31% | Draw 24% | Hull City 45%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Watford 46%, Hull City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Watford's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Watford 1.27 PPG, Hull City 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Watford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.