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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Watford 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Watford 1-2 at Vicarage Road, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Watford 1.67 xG and Cardiff 0.77 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Watford attack 0.95 / defence 0.76 against Cardiff attack 0.98 / defence 1.23, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Watford 57% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 16%, with Watford to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Cardiff win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Watford 54%, Cardiff 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Watford's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Watford 1.37 PPG, Cardiff 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Watford (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights