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Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out West Brom 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat West Brom 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.55 xG and West Brom 1.08 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. West Brom landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against West Brom attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 47% | Draw 27% | West Brom 26%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, West Brom 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

West Brom's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.29 PPG, West Brom 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights