Swansea 1-0 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and West Brom meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 1 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Swansea have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Swansea.com Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
West Brom (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Swansea, 1.30 for West Brom — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Swansea, 3 for West Brom and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 2–3 with West Brom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 46% versus West Brom 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 46% | West Brom 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.55 xG and West Brom 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.953 / defence 1.089 | West Brom attack 0.865 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.151. Data: 70 Swansea games / 70 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 47% | Draw 27% | West Brom 26%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | West Brom 3.85. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 70% | West Brom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 47% | Draw 27% | West Brom 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Swansea 1.55 / West Brom 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.953 / def 1.089 | West Brom attack 0.865 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Swansea (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.08
West Brom xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs West Brom kick off?
Swansea vs West Brom kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 1 January 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs West Brom?
Swansea 1 - 0 West Brom.
Where is Swansea vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs West Brom part of?
Swansea vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 47% chance of winning, West Brom a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Swansea and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and West Brom?
Record (9 meetings): Swansea 5W | Draws 1 | West Brom 3W.
What form are Swansea and West Brom in?
Swansea (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. West Brom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swansea's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.86x) against Swansea's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.74
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.63
1.08
West Brom xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Swansea and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Swansea and 1.08 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea come into this having played 70 games, going 25W 15D 30L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 1.36 PPG from 70 outings (24W 23D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Swansea against 1.36 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Swansea's home form reads 15W 9D 11L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, West Brom have taken 0.91 points per game from 35 outings (7W 11D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.21 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and West Brom in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 25W 15D 30L in their last 70 games (1.29 PPG), while West Brom have gone 24W 23D 23L in their last 70 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or West Brom away?
Swansea's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.54 PPG; West Brom away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Swansea
1
Draws
3
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and West Brom?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 6, West Brom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Swansea 1-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and West Brom?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 49%, West Brom 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Swansea) and 46% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; West Brom in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Swansea's games and 63% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Swansea's recent games and 46% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and West Brom tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, West Brom in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out West Brom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat West Brom 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.55 xG and West Brom 1.08 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. West Brom landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against West Brom attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 47% | Draw 27% | West Brom 26%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, West Brom 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
West Brom's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.29 PPG, West Brom 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.