Swansea vs Sunderland – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Swansea 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Swansea 2-3 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.03 xG and Sunderland 1.14 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sunderland outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Sunderland attack 0.97 / defence 0.81, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 31% | Draw 34% | Sunderland 36%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 50%, Sunderland 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Sunderland's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.27 PPG, Sunderland 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights