Swansea 1-3 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Swansea take on Stoke City.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Stoke City at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Championship matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Swansea have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Championship games this season, Stoke City have recorded 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Stoke City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stoke City — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.76 xG and Stoke City 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.800 / defence 0.970 | Stoke City attack 0.671 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.421. Data: 2 Swansea games / 2 Stoke City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Swansea 24% | Draw 42% | Stoke City 34%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 4.17 | Draw 2.38 | Stoke City 2.94. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 24% | Draw 42% | Stoke City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG Swansea 0.76 / Stoke City 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.800 / def 0.970 | Stoke City attack 0.671 / def 1.003 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Stoke City xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Stoke City kick off?
Swansea vs Stoke City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 August 2021 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Stoke City?
Swansea 1 - 3 Stoke City.
Where is Swansea vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Stoke City part of?
Swansea vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 24% chance of winning, Stoke City a 34% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Swansea and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Stoke City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swansea and Stoke City in?
Swansea (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D. Stoke City (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.80) and Stoke City's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.10
42%
2.39
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Swansea xG
Total xG
1.68
0.93
Stoke City xG
4.10
24%
Home win
2.39
42%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 17.2 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Swansea and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Swansea and 0.93 for Stoke City, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Swansea have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Swansea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stoke City's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D. It's still early in the season for Stoke City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Stoke City are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Swansea.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Stoke City in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Early Season
Stoke City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Swansea or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Stoke City in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2022, when Stoke City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Swansea
3
Draws
5
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Stoke City?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 2, Stoke City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Swansea 2-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Stoke City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Swansea's recent matches and 50% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Swansea's recent games and 50% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stoke City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat Swansea 1-3 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.76 xG and Stoke City 0.93 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stoke City outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against Stoke City attack 0.67 / defence 1.00, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 24% | Draw 42% | Stoke City 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 50%, Stoke City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Stoke City arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Swansea shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stoke City scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.