Nottingham Forest 1-2 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Blackburn at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The City Ground plays host to Nottingham Forest versus Blackburn in Championship, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Wednesday 18 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Nottingham Forest's overall Championship record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Blackburn have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Championship outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Blackburn have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Blackburn are the stronger side — 2.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Nottingham Forest register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Blackburn in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.00 xG and Blackburn 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.961 / defence 1.216 | Blackburn attack 0.796 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.909 / away 1.488. Data: 2 Nottingham Forest games / 2 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 23% | Draw 33% | Blackburn 44%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Blackburn 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Blackburn at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackburn if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 23% | Draw 33% | Blackburn 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.00 / Blackburn 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.961 / def 1.216 | Blackburn attack 0.796 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.909 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Blackburn xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 18 August 2021 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 2 Blackburn.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 23% chance of winning, Blackburn a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Blackburn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Blackburn in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L. Blackburn (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.96) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.80x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 2/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
23%
4.36
33%
3.01
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.44
1.44
Blackburn xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
5%
18.40
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.44 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Blackburn, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Blackburn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Blackburn by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nottingham Forest heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Blackburn in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
Blackburn
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
0
Draws
1
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Blackburn?
From 2 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Blackburn have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2022, when Blackburn 0-2 Nottingham Forest.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Blackburn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Nottingham Forest's games and 100% of Blackburn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 50% of Blackburn's.
Do Nottingham Forest and Blackburn tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Blackburn edge out Nottingham Forest 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Nottingham Forest 1-2 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.00 xG and Blackburn 1.44 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Blackburn attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 23% | Draw 33% | Blackburn 44%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 100%, Blackburn 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Blackburn arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.