Swansea 0-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Swansea at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Swansea.com Stadium plays host to Swansea versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Wednesday 22 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Swansea's overall Championship record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea at Swansea.com Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
QPR have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Swansea, 1.50 for QPR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Swansea 3W, QPR 2W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Swansea winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 43% versus QPR 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 43% | QPR 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.56 xG and QPR 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.001 / defence 1.118 | QPR attack 1.084 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.166. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Swansea games / 56 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 41% | Draw 24% | QPR 34%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | QPR 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 50% | QPR 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 41% | Draw 24% | QPR 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Swansea 1.56 / QPR 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.001 / def 1.118 | QPR attack 1.084 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Swansea (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.41
QPR xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs QPR kick off?
Swansea vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 22 October 2025 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs QPR?
Swansea 0 - 1 QPR.
Where is Swansea vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs QPR part of?
Swansea vs QPR is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 41% chance of winning, QPR a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Swansea and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and QPR?
Record (8 meetings): Swansea 3W | Draws 3 | QPR 2W.
What form are Swansea and QPR in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. QPR (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swansea's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.08x) against Swansea's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
41%
2.43
24%
4.11
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.98
1.41
QPR xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Swansea and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Swansea and 1.41 for QPR, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea's recent record stands at 20W 14D 22L from 56 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 21L across 56 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Swansea against 1.27 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 11W 9D 8L from 28 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 9W 7D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.20 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and QPR in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 20W 14D 22L in their last 56 games (1.32 PPG), while QPR have gone 18W 17D 21L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or QPR away?
Swansea's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.50 PPG; QPR away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Swansea or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, QPR in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Swansea
3
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 4, QPR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when QPR 1-2 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and QPR?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 46%, QPR 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Swansea) and 50% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; QPR in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Swansea's recent matches and 61% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Swansea's recent games and 50% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and QPR tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, QPR in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Swansea 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Swansea 0-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.56 xG and QPR 1.41 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swansea fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against QPR attack 1.08 / defence 1.30, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 41% | Draw 24% | QPR 34%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 43%, QPR 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.32 PPG, QPR 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.