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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Swansea run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Plymouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Plymouth 3-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.55 xG and Plymouth 0.70 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Plymouth attack 0.70 / defence 1.29, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 58% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 17%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 51%, Plymouth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Plymouth's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.22 PPG, Plymouth 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights