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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Swansea and Oxford United share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 46, as Swansea and Oxford United drew 3-3 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.38 xG and Oxford United 0.63 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oxford United outscored their 0.63 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Oxford United attack 0.71 / defence 1.05, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 55% | Draw 28% | Oxford United 17%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 50%, Oxford United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Oxford United's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.29 PPG, Oxford United 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oxford United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights