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Leicester cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester beat Swansea 1-3 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.40 xG and Leicester 1.13 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Leicester outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Leicester attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 42% | Draw 29% | Leicester 29%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, Leicester 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Leicester's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Swansea arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Leicester winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Swansea (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights