Swansea 2-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 41 sees Derby travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Swansea.com Stadium this season.
Derby — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Swansea carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Swansea, 0 for Derby and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Derby in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 41% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 51% | Derby 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.43 xG and Derby 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.974 / defence 1.257 | Derby attack 0.609 / defence 1.412. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 1.087. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.412 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Swansea games / 40 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 51% | Draw 27% | Derby 22%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Derby 4.55. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 60% | Derby 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 51% | Draw 27% | Derby 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Swansea 1.43 / Derby 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.974 / def 1.257 | Derby attack 0.609 / def 1.412 | league avg home 1.041 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Swansea (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Derby xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Derby kick off?
Swansea vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Derby?
Swansea 2 - 1 Derby.
Where is Swansea vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Derby part of?
Swansea vs Derby is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 51% chance of winning, Derby a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Swansea and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 1 | Derby 0W.
What form are Swansea and Derby in?
Swansea (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Derby (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.97x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.71
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.27
0.83
Derby xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
5%
19.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Swansea and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Swansea and 0.83 for Derby, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 15W 9D 15L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 12W 12D 15L from 39 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.38 PPG, Derby on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Derby have gone 1W 6D 11L from 18 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Swansea are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.97 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Derby in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while Derby have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Derby away?
Swansea's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.61 PPG; Derby away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Swansea or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Derby in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swansea and Derby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Swansea's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Swansea
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Swansea have won 3, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Derby 2-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Derby?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swansea see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 44%, Derby 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Swansea) and 33% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Swansea have failed to score in 28% of games; Derby in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Swansea's recent matches and 44% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Swansea's recent games and 33% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Derby 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Derby 2-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.43 xG and Derby 0.83 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against Derby attack 0.61 / defence 1.41, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 51% | Draw 27% | Derby 22%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 51%, Derby 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.38 PPG, Derby 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.