Fulham 1-3 Coventry – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Coventry encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Coventry in Championship, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off: Sunday 10 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Championship record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Coventry (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Coventry's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Fulham's favour (2.20 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fulham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Coventry in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with Coventry winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Coventry half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 54% versus Coventry 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 51% | Coventry 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 2.08 xG and Coventry 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.459 / defence 1.110 | Coventry attack 0.862 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.099. Fulham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.459 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Coventry bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Fulham games / 40 Coventry games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 61% | Draw 21% | Coventry 18%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Coventry 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Coventry 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Coventry | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 61% | Draw 21% | Coventry 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Fulham 2.08 / Coventry 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.459 / def 1.110 | Coventry attack 0.862 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Fulham (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Coventry xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Coventry kick off?
Fulham vs Coventry kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Coventry?
Fulham 1 - 3 Coventry.
Where is Fulham vs Coventry being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Coventry part of?
Fulham vs Coventry is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Coventry?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 61% chance of winning, Coventry a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Coventry?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fulham and Coventry will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Coventry have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Coventry?
Record (1 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 0 | Coventry 1W.
What form are Fulham and Coventry in?
Fulham (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Coventry (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.46) and Coventry's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coventry's attack (0.86x) against Fulham's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.87
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.14
1.05
Coventry xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
43.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Coventry?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Fulham and Coventry expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Fulham and 1.05 for Coventry, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Coventry?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fulham come into this having played 39 games, going 25W 8D 6L for 2.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Coventry sit at 1.36 PPG from 39 outings (14W 11D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Coventry — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fulham's home form reads 12W 4D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Coventry have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Coventry are on 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Coventry
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Coventry in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 25W 8D 6L in their last 39 games (2.13 PPG), while Coventry have gone 14W 11D 14L in their last 39 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Coventry away?
Fulham's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.11 PPG; Coventry away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Fulham or Coventry been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Coventry in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Fulham
0
Draws
2
Coventry
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Coventry?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 0, Coventry have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Coventry last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Fulham 1-3 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Coventry?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 58%, Coventry 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fulham) and 42% (Coventry).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Coventry in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Coventry away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Coventry?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fulham's games and 53% of Coventry's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Coventry usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Fulham's recent games and 42% of Coventry's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Coventry tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Coventry in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coventry cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry beat Fulham 1-3 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.08 xG and Coventry 1.05 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Coventry outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.46 / defence 1.11 against Coventry attack 0.86 / defence 1.37, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 61% | Draw 21% | Coventry 18%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Coventry win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 51%, Coventry 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Coventry's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Coventry winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.