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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Swansea 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Swansea 1-2 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.15 xG and Derby 1.62 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Derby attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 27% | Draw 25% | Derby 48%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 45%, Derby 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Derby's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.26 PPG, Derby 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights