Swansea 1-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Derby travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 November 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Derby's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Swansea's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Swansea: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Derby, with 1 draws across those contests.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Swansea winning.
The historical record gives Swansea a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Derby in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 45% versus Derby 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 45% | Derby 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.15 xG and Derby 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.892 / defence 1.234 | Derby attack 1.081 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.215. Data: 62 Swansea games / 62 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 27% | Draw 25% | Derby 48%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Derby 2.08. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Swansea dominate the H2H record, yet Derby are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 70% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 27% | Draw 25% | Derby 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Swansea 1.15 / Derby 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.892 / def 1.234 | Derby attack 1.081 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Derby (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Derby xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Derby kick off?
Swansea vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 November 2025 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Derby?
Swansea 1 - 2 Derby.
Where is Swansea vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Derby part of?
Swansea vs Derby is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 27% chance of winning, Derby a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Swansea and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Derby?
Record (4 meetings): Swansea 3W | Draws 1 | Derby 0W.
What form are Swansea and Derby in?
Swansea (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Derby (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.89x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
27%
3.70
25%
4.04
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.77
1.62
Derby xG
3.70
27%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
18.71
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Swansea and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Swansea and 1.62 for Derby, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 15D 26L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 19W 16D 27L from 62 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.26 PPG, Derby on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (11W 9D 10L).
On the road, Derby have gone 7W 8D 15L from 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Swansea are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.13 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Derby in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 21W 15D 26L in their last 62 games (1.26 PPG), while Derby have gone 19W 16D 27L in their last 62 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Derby away?
Swansea's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.40 PPG; Derby away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swansea and Derby runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Swansea won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Swansea
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Derby?
From 7 meetings on record, Swansea have won 4, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Derby 0-3 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Derby?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Derby see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 50%, Derby 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Swansea) and 50% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Derby in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Swansea's games and 63% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Swansea's recent games and 50% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Derby tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Derby in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Swansea 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Swansea 1-2 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.15 xG and Derby 1.62 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Derby attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 27% | Draw 25% | Derby 48%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 45%, Derby 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.26 PPG, Derby 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.