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Poisson rates Derby at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Derby encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Derby travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 November 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Derby — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Derby's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Derby's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Swansea's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Swansea: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Derby, with 1 draws across those contests.

The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Swansea winning.

The historical record gives Swansea a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Swansea in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Derby in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 45% versus Derby 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 45% | Derby 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.15 xG and Derby 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.892 / defence 1.234 | Derby attack 1.081 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.215. Data: 62 Swansea games / 62 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Swansea 27% | Draw 25% | Derby 48%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Derby 2.08. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Swansea dominate the H2H record, yet Derby are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 70% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.

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