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Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Derby 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Derby 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.58 xG and Derby 0.92 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Derby attack 0.85 / defence 1.26, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 53% | Draw 25% | Derby 22%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 52%, Derby 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Derby's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.20 PPG, Derby 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights