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Poisson rates Swansea at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Derby encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 40 sees Derby travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Derby — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Derby's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Swansea) versus 1.40 (Derby). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Swansea, 0 for Derby and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Swansea winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Swansea in-play tendencies (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Derby in-play tendencies (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 52% versus Derby 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 52% | Derby 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.58 xG and Derby 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.956 / defence 1.061 | Derby attack 0.850 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.016. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 85 Swansea games / 39 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Swansea 53% | Draw 25% | Derby 22%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Derby 4.55. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 40% | Derby 50% BTTS from recent games.

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