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Dominant Coventry run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Swansea 0-3 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.38 xG and Coventry 1.25 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Swansea fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Coventry outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against Coventry attack 1.27 / defence 0.95, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 39% | Draw 29% | Coventry 33%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Coventry win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 45%, Coventry 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Coventry's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.35 PPG, Coventry 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.02 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights