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Burnley cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Swansea 0-2 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.71 xG and Burnley 1.09 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Burnley attack 1.07 / defence 0.55, drawn from 83/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 24% | Draw 33% | Burnley 44%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 52%, Burnley 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burnley's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.27 PPG, Burnley 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights