Swansea 4-0 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Blackburn travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Blackburn — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Swansea carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Swansea have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Blackburn have managed just 3 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Swansea winning.
The historical record gives Swansea a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Swansea trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Blackburn trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 52% versus Blackburn 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 52% | Blackburn 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.36 xG and Blackburn 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.857 / defence 0.728 | Blackburn attack 0.978 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.283. Swansea's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Swansea games / 58 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 47% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 25%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Blackburn 4.00. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 50% | Blackburn 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 47% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Swansea 1.36 / Blackburn 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.857 / def 0.728 | Blackburn attack 0.978 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Swansea (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Blackburn xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Blackburn kick off?
Swansea vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Swansea 4 - 0 Blackburn.
Where is Swansea vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Blackburn part of?
Swansea vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 47% chance of winning, Blackburn a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Swansea and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackburn?
Record (9 meetings): Swansea 6W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 3W.
What form are Swansea and Blackburn in?
Swansea (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Blackburn (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.86x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.61
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.27
0.91
Blackburn xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Swansea and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Swansea and 0.91 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 12D 21L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.21 PPG from 58 outings (18W 16D 24L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.50 PPG, Blackburn on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swansea's home form reads 14W 8D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.28 points per game from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.05 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 25W 12D 21L in their last 58 games (1.50 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 18W 16D 24L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Blackburn away?
Swansea's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.72 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Swansea have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2026, when Swansea won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Swansea
0
Draws
3
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 7, Blackburn have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Swansea 4-0 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Blackburn?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 55%, Blackburn 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 52% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Blackburn in 31%; Blackburn in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Swansea's recent matches and 45% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 52% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Blackburn tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Swansea run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Blackburn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Blackburn 4-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.36 xG and Blackburn 0.91 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Blackburn landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.86 / defence 0.73 against Blackburn attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 47% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 25%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 52%, Blackburn 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Blackburn's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.50 PPG, Blackburn 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.