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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Swansea and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Swansea and Birmingham drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.63 xG and Birmingham 0.74 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Birmingham attack 0.65 / defence 1.28, drawn from 72/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 58% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 17%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, Birmingham 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Birmingham's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 2.01 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights