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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sunderland and Watford share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland and Watford finished level at 2-2 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.72 xG and Watford 1.11 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Watford outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Watford attack 1.11 / defence 1.21, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 51% | Draw 25% | Watford 24%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 46%, Watford 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Watford's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.50 PPG, Watford 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights