🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.54 xG and Swansea 0.83 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Swansea attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 54% | Draw 26% | Swansea 20%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Swansea win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 46%, Swansea 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Swansea's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.52 PPG, Swansea 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights