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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sunderland and Plymouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 29, as Sunderland and Plymouth drew 2-2 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 2.17 xG and Plymouth 0.45 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 0.45 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.04 / defence 0.84 against Plymouth attack 0.52 / defence 1.52, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 77% | Draw 18% | Plymouth 6%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 45%, Plymouth 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Plymouth's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights