Sunderland 1-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sunderland face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Burnley meet at Stadium of Light in Championship (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sunderland's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Sunderland have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Burnley (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Burnley have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Burnley edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Mar 2023, ended Sunderland 0–0 Burnley — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 38% versus Burnley 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 40% | Burnley 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.84 xG and Burnley 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.110 / defence 0.933 | Burnley attack 1.188 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.186. Data: built from Sunderland's last 48 games and Burnley's last 2.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 49% | Draw 24% | Burnley 27%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.03 | Draw 4.20 | Burnley 3.71. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sunderland's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sunderland 40% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 49% | Draw 24% | Burnley 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Sunderland 1.84 / Burnley 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.110 / def 0.933 | Burnley attack 1.188 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Burnley xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Burnley kick off?
Sunderland vs Burnley kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Burnley?
Sunderland 1 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Sunderland vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Burnley part of?
Sunderland vs Burnley is a Championship fixture (matchday 3) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 49% chance of winning, Burnley a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sunderland and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sunderland vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sunderland's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.19x) against Sunderland's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 48 games and Burnley's last 2 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.20
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Sunderland xG
Total xG
3.16
1.31
Burnley xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
4%
23.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.31 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 14W 7D 19L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 7W 9D 24L from 40 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Sunderland are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 20 home games (9W 2D 9L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 4W 5D 11L from their last 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.25 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley in 62%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Sunderland vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Burnley in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 14W 7D 19L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Burnley have gone 7W 9D 24L in their last 40 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Burnley away?
Sunderland's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.45 PPG; Burnley away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Burnley in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was on 2 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won Sunderland 3-0 Burnley on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
2
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Burnley?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 2, Burnley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2026: Sunderland 3-0 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 40%, Burnley 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Sunderland and 65% for Burnley. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Burnley matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Sunderland's games and 70% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sunderland and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Sunderland's matches and 65% of Burnley's.
Do Sunderland and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Sunderland's recent matches and 85% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Burnley 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Burnley 1-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.84 xG and Burnley 1.31 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Burnley landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against Burnley attack 1.19 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 49% | Draw 24% | Burnley 27%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 40%, Burnley 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burnley's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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