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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stoke City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Swansea 3-1 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.30 xG and Swansea 0.89 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stoke City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against Swansea attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 77/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 46% | Draw 29% | Swansea 25%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 40%, Swansea 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Swansea's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.14 PPG, Swansea 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Swansea (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights