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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stoke City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat QPR 3-1 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.07 xG and QPR 0.83 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stoke City beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against QPR attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 40% | Draw 32% | QPR 28%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, QPR 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.13 PPG, QPR 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights