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Portsmouth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stoke City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Stoke City 1-3 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.98 xG and Portsmouth 1.23 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stoke City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Portsmouth outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Portsmouth attack 0.92 / defence 1.40, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 53% | Draw 24% | Portsmouth 22%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Portsmouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 40%, Portsmouth 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Portsmouth's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.18 PPG, Portsmouth 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights