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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stoke City edge out Oxford United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Oxford United 2-1 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.05 xG and Oxford United 0.89 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stoke City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Oxford United attack 0.76 / defence 0.92, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 37% | Draw 35% | Oxford United 28%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 38%, Oxford United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Oxford United's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.20 PPG, Oxford United 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights