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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Middlesbrough cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stoke City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough beat Stoke City 1-3 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.48 xG and Middlesbrough 1.41 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Middlesbrough outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Middlesbrough attack 1.34 / defence 1.21, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 39% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 36%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Middlesbrough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, Middlesbrough 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.15 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights