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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stoke City and Leicester share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Stoke City and Leicester drew 2-2 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.42 xG and Leicester 1.05 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Leicester outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against Leicester attack 0.97 / defence 1.29, drawn from 78/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 44% | Draw 29% | Leicester 27%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 36%, Leicester 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Leicester's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.21 PPG, Leicester 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights