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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Stoke City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Stoke City 1-2 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.89 xG and Hull City 1.01 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stoke City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Hull City outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.22 / defence 0.74 against Hull City attack 1.15 / defence 1.19, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 58% | Draw 23% | Hull City 20%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 38%, Hull City 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Hull City's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.29 PPG, Hull City 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights