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Poisson rates Stoke City at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Hull City encounter.

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Match Analysis

Stoke City host Hull City at Bet365 Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Bet365 Stadium, Stoke City have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Hull City — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Hull City have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stoke City 1.70 PPG, Hull City 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Stoke City have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Hull City have managed just 2 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Stoke City winning.

The historical record gives Stoke City a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Stoke City trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Hull City trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 43% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stoke City 38% | Hull City 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.89 xG and Hull City 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.219 / defence 0.741 | Hull City attack 1.150 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.190. Stoke City's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Stoke City games / 63 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stoke City 58% | Draw 23% | Hull City 20%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Hull City 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Stoke City (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Stoke City as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stoke City 30% | Hull City 70%.

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