Stoke City 1-3 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stoke City at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stoke City host Hull City at bet365 Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Stoke City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at bet365 Stadium, Stoke City have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at bet365 Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hull City have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Stoke City are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Stoke City have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Hull City have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Stoke City winning.
The historical record gives Stoke City a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stoke City trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hull City trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 39% versus Hull City 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 43% | Hull City 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.36 xG and Hull City 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.973 / defence 0.963 | Hull City attack 0.903 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.113. Data: 51 Stoke City games / 51 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 46% | Draw 27% | Hull City 27%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Hull City 3.70. Stoke City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stoke City as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stoke City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 30% | Hull City 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 46% | Draw 27% | Hull City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Stoke City 1.36 / Hull City 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.973 / def 0.963 | Hull City attack 0.903 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Hull City xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Hull City kick off?
Stoke City vs Hull City kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Hull City?
Stoke City 1 - 3 Hull City.
Where is Stoke City vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Hull City part of?
Stoke City vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 46% chance of winning, Hull City a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stoke City and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Hull City?
Record (6 meetings): Stoke City 4W | Draws 1 | Hull City 1W.
What form are Stoke City and Hull City in?
Stoke City (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Hull City (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (0.97) and Hull City's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.64
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.33
0.97
Hull City xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
7%
14.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Stoke City and 0.97 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 17W 11D 23L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stoke City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hull City's form line: 19W 16D 16L from 51 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.22 PPG, Hull City on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 11W 5D 9L from 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.37 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Hull City in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while Hull City have gone 19W 16D 16L in their last 51 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.32 PPG; Hull City away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hull City in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and Hull City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2022, when Stoke City won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stoke City's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Stoke City
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 6, Hull City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Hull City 0-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Hull City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 32%, Hull City 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stoke City) and 64% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Stoke City have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Stoke City's recent matches and 64% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stoke City's recent games and 64% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Hull City tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hull City in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stoke City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Stoke City 1-3 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.36 xG and Hull City 0.97 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hull City outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Hull City attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 46% | Draw 27% | Hull City 27%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 43%, Hull City 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.22 PPG, Hull City 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.