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Dominant Stoke City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Charlton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Charlton 3-0 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.31 xG and Charlton 0.76 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stoke City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.11 / defence 0.80 against Charlton attack 0.78 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 50% | Draw 29% | Charlton 21%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 37%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Charlton's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Stoke City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights