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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stoke City vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Bet365 Stadium plays host to Stoke City versus Charlton in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 25 November 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

Stoke City (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stoke City's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Bet365 Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

Charlton have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Charlton away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Stoke City, 1.50 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading & In-Play

Stoke City — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Charlton — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 44% versus Charlton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 37% | Charlton 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.31 xG and Charlton 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.113 / defence 0.801 | Charlton attack 0.775 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.215. Data: 62 Stoke City games / 16 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stoke City 50% | Draw 29% | Charlton 21%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Charlton 4.76. Stoke City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stoke City if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 40% | Charlton 30% BTTS from recent games.

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