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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Stoke City run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Bristol City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Bristol City 5-1 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 0.89 xG and Bristol City 1.00 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Stoke City beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Bristol City attack 1.07 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 31% | Draw 32% | Bristol City 37%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 34%, Bristol City 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Bristol City's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.24 PPG, Bristol City 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Bristol City (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights