🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Southampton run riot with a 5-0 hammering of QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Southampton beat QPR 5-0 at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 1.06 xG and QPR 0.89 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Southampton beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. QPR landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.90 / defence 0.88 against QPR attack 0.85 / defence 0.90, drawn from 33/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Southampton 37% | Draw 34% | QPR 28%, with Southampton to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 59%, QPR 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Southampton's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

QPR's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, QPR arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Southampton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Southampton (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights