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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Southampton and Ipswich share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 40, as Southampton and Ipswich drew 2-2 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 1.67 xG and Ipswich 1.07 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ipswich outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 1.23 / defence 0.79 against Ipswich attack 1.12 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Southampton 50% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 23%, with Southampton to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 61%, Ipswich 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Southampton's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Ipswich's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Southampton 1.07 PPG, Ipswich 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Southampton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights