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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Southampton 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Southampton 1-2 at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 1.36 xG and Hull City 1.43 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Hull City attack 1.29 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Southampton 35% | Draw 26% | Hull City 38%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 62%, Hull City 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Southampton's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Hull City's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights