Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sheffield Wednesday at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Plymouth travel to Hillsborough to take on Sheffield Wednesday. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 March 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sheffield Wednesday stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Hillsborough, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Plymouth have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sheffield Wednesday 1.60 PPG, Plymouth 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Sheffield Wednesday have won 2, Plymouth 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sheffield Wednesday in-play and half-time data (81 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (81 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 40% versus Plymouth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 47% | Plymouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.34 xG and Plymouth 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.910 / defence 0.992 | Plymouth attack 0.802 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.260. Data: 35 Sheffield Wednesday games / 35 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 44% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 28%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Plymouth 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sheffield Wednesday at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sheffield Wednesday 70% | Plymouth 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 44% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.34 / Plymouth 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.910 / def 0.992 | Plymouth attack 0.802 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Plymouth xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 March 2024 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 44% chance of winning, Plymouth a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth?
Record (5 meetings): Sheffield Wednesday 2W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 3W.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sheffield Wednesday's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.63
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.34
1.00
Plymouth xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.00 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sheffield Wednesday come into this having played 81 games, going 38W 16D 27L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.74 PPG from 81 outings (41W 18D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sheffield Wednesday on 1.60 PPG, Plymouth on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sheffield Wednesday's home form reads 22W 9D 8L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.33 points per game from 39 outings (13W 13D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.67 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 38W 16D 27L in their last 81 games (1.60 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 41W 18D 22L in their last 81 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Plymouth away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 1.92 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Plymouth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sheffield Wednesday have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Sheffield Wednesday won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sheffield Wednesday's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sheffield Wednesday
0
Draws
3
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 5, Plymouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Plymouth 0-3 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 46%, Plymouth 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 56% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Plymouth in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 59% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 56% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Wednesday edge out Plymouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday beat Plymouth 1-0 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.34 xG and Plymouth 1.00 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Plymouth attack 0.80 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 44% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 28%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 47%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plymouth's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.60 PPG, Plymouth 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Wednesday win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.