Blackburn 1-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackburn at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Blackburn face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Ewood Park to face Blackburn in Championship (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Blackburn (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Blackburn have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Blackburn are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Plymouth away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Blackburn, 1.10 for Plymouth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Blackburn, 1 for Plymouth and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Blackburn 0–3 Plymouth — a Plymouth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 52% versus Plymouth 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 55% | Plymouth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.40 xG and Plymouth 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.969 / defence 1.160 | Plymouth attack 0.750 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.239. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Blackburn's last 82 games and Plymouth's last 36.
Result probabilities: Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 29%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.25 | Draw 3.75 | Plymouth 3.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackburn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Blackburn 90% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 37 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Blackburn 1.40 / Plymouth 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.969 / def 1.160 | Plymouth attack 0.750 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Plymouth xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Blackburn vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Blackburn vs Plymouth kick off?
Blackburn vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Plymouth?
Blackburn 1 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Blackburn vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Plymouth part of?
Blackburn vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 44% chance of winning, Plymouth a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Blackburn and Plymouth will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Blackburn vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Blackburn's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.75x) against Blackburn's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Blackburn's last 82 games and Plymouth's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.75
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.48
1.08
Plymouth xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
7%
14.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Blackburn vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.08 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 82 outings, Blackburn have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 31W 16D 35L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 41W 18D 23L from 82 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Blackburn against 1.72 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Blackburn have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 41 home games (19W 8D 14L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 13W 13D 15L from their last 41 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Blackburn are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.65 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
Blackburn (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Blackburn
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Blackburn vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Blackburn and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 31W 16D 35L in their last 82 games (1.33 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 41W 18D 23L in their last 82 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Plymouth away?
Blackburn's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.59 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Plymouth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Blackburn and Plymouth, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plymouth won Plymouth 3-0 Blackburn on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Blackburn have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Blackburn
1
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Blackburn vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Plymouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Blackburn have won 1, Plymouth have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2025: Blackburn 2-0 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 58%, Plymouth 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Blackburn) and 56% (Plymouth).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Blackburn vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Blackburn and Plymouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Blackburn's games and 58% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Blackburn and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Blackburn's recent games and 56% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Blackburn's recent matches and 68% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackburn and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn and Plymouth finished level at 1-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.40 xG and Plymouth 1.08 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Plymouth attack 0.75 / defence 1.06, drawn from 82/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 29%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 55%, Plymouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.33 PPG, Plymouth 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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