Blackburn 1-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackburn at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Blackburn vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Ewood Park to face Blackburn in Championship, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Blackburn (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Blackburn have posted 3W 4D 3L at Ewood Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Blackburn are significantly better at Ewood Park than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth's overall Championship record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Plymouth away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Blackburn, 1.10 for Plymouth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Blackburn 0W, Plymouth 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 52% versus Plymouth 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 55% | Plymouth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.40 xG and Plymouth 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.969 / defence 1.160 | Plymouth attack 0.750 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.239. Data: 82 Blackburn games / 36 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 29%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Plymouth 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackburn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Blackburn 90% | Plymouth 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Blackburn 1.40 / Plymouth 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.969 / def 1.160 | Plymouth attack 0.750 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Plymouth xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Plymouth kick off?
Blackburn vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Plymouth?
Blackburn 1 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Blackburn vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Plymouth part of?
Blackburn vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 44% chance of winning, Plymouth a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Blackburn and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Plymouth?
Record (1 meetings): Blackburn 0W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Blackburn and Plymouth in?
Blackburn (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Blackburn's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.75x) against Blackburn's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 82/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.75
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.48
1.08
Plymouth xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
7%
14.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.08 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 82 outings, Blackburn have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 31W 16D 35L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 41W 18D 23L from 82 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Blackburn against 1.72 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Blackburn have posted 1.59 PPG from 41 outings (19W 8D 14L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 13W 13D 15L from 41 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Attack vs Defence
Blackburn are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.65 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 82 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 31W 16D 35L in their last 82 games (1.33 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 41W 18D 23L in their last 82 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Plymouth away?
Blackburn's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.59 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Plymouth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plymouth won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Blackburn have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Blackburn
1
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 1, Plymouth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Blackburn 2-0 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 58%, Plymouth 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Blackburn) and 56% (Plymouth).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Blackburn's games and 58% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Blackburn vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Blackburn's recent games and 56% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Plymouth tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackburn and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn and Plymouth finished level at 1-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.40 xG and Plymouth 1.08 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Plymouth attack 0.75 / defence 1.06, drawn from 82/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 29%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 55%, Plymouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.33 PPG, Plymouth 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.