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Sheffield Wednesday cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Derby.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Wednesday beat Derby 4-2 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.39 xG and Derby 0.97 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derby outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Derby attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 70/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 46% | Draw 29% | Derby 25%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 47%, Derby 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Derby's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Sheffield Wednesday winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights